The "Wins and Losses" Farce

One of the key metrics for evaluating a pitcher in baseball is their record of wins and losses. It is essentially an accounting of how many runs opponents scored off the pitcher and his 8 defensive teammates relative to the number of runs the pitcher's 9-man batting order scored during the time when the pitcher was in the game. If it sounds like the pitcher plays only a fractional part (albeit an important fraction) in the final outcome, that is because it is so.

So why do we continue to track and consider this statistic as important? Obviously, good pitchers on poor teams can out-perform bad pitchers on strong teams and have an inferior Win/Loss record. It makes no sense.

Unless you look at it in relative terms.

Relative to the trend of looking at Win/Loss records for NFL quarterbacks, rating pitchers on that measure seems comparatively brilliant. Of course that is only due to the unfathomable absurdity of hanging a win or a loss for a 53-man football team on one player.

It is all over the news today. With last night's win over the Packers, Favre has become the first QB to defeat all 32 active NFL football teams in his career. I guess he did it all by himself. Forget the fact that the Vikings held the Packers to zero points through three trips to the red-zone and had 3 take-aways in the game. Forget the special teams play. Forget football's best running back, Adrian Peterson, who drew a stacked box all night and opened up the passing lanes for a talented core of Vikings receivers. Forget all the coaching, and scheming, and game-planning, and play-calling. Favre did it alone.

How can smart guys, who played the game and then became analysts, spew this crap? I can tolerate it in baseball because sometimes a pitcher throws nine innings of excellence and deserves recognition as the key contributor to a win. But in football, I cannot abide this emerging trend.

The Brett Report

I know that Favre gets a lot of media attention and that many people find that irritating. That's why this short note is not about "Favre the football player" but about "Brett the person". Okay, I guess that's the same thing but bear with me, at least it's not about football.

One personality trait that is high on my list of endearing charcteristics is the ability to poke fun at oneself. I learned today that Brett has this ability.

I learned it on the radio while driving to work when I heard a Sears advertisement about the TV's they sell. Favre was the shopper and his over-publicized voice was easy to recognize. In the ad dialogue, the sales assistant expresses surprise that Brett makes up his mind so quickly and so definitively about which TV to buy. At first, Favre seems testy that this would be surprising and suggests that he doesn't wish to be seen as a waffler. But here is the closing dialogue:

Favre: I'll take it.
Assistant: Great!
Favre (with great uncertainty): I don't know....

Clearly, he is aware of his image, knows the image is at least partly deserved, and is willing to publicly accept his own role in crafting that image. Good for him.

Points of Interest in the NFL

Here are some of the things I find most interesting about the upcoming NFL season.

Best Conference Drama - NFC North
I am eager to see how the QB shake-up plays out. You've got Cutler starting for the Bears and Favre for the Vikings, either of whom could challenge the reigning conference champs (GB) for the top spot. You also have Stafford, the #1 overall pick in the draft, looking like the starter for the Lions who are coming off a perfect 0-16 disaster of a season.

Most Question Marks - The West (mostly NFC)
Let's see, the coaches on Al Davis' Raiders are under investigation for assaulting one another but have a roster that includes the top overall picks from 2007 and 2008 plus the 2009 pick that generated the most snickering around the league. Questions abound.

Seattle is back from a year when virtually their entire team was injured but now they have changed coaches and added one of the most prolific receivers in the league (TJH). What to expect?

San Francisco looks to be going with a musical chair approach at the QB position and head coach Singletary's unorthodox approach to player interaction should continue to feed the Sports Center highlight reel. Will the wheels fall off or will that machine roll?

Throw in the Rams who are great on paper but can't win and you've got a whole lotta question marks in that division. If the Raiders could move from the AFC to the NFC it would make for the most mysterious division possible.

Intriguing Comebacks to Watch
Brady is back after missing an entire season with a torn up knee. He'll have a new offensive co-ordinator, new backfield, and a #1 receiver who is now pretty old.

Vick is back but we don' really know in what capacity. He's been in the can for two years so who knows how he will play. For that matter, who knows how he will conduct himself in society -- watching him will be watching two comebacks.

Favre, three retirements, yadda yadda. We know Tarketon will be watching.

Finally, Cadillac Williams is back from a second straight major knee surgery. No one has returned productively from such extensive damage on both sides but he seems optimistic and has looked real in pre-season.

Former NE Coaches Worth Watching
Josh McDaniels left NE for the top job in Denver and accidentally confused himself with Bill Belichick along the way. He is off to a rocky start with the franchise QB demanding a trade after LMD botched the relationship.

Mangini got canned in NY but resurfaced in Cleveland to replace former NE coach Romeo Crennel. As Mangini was the instigator of spy-gate, I find the specter of his ongoing failure enticing.

Jim Mora has no ties to NE but he is a new coach in an interesting role and I know his uncle so he gets mentioned here (send your imaginary complaints to thehand.com).

Welcome Back, Brett

The FCC has really been bearing down on me for not posting about Favre over the past few weeks. Now that there is some news, I can share my thoughts and get the law off my back.

A high percentage of the news coverage on Favre for the past two years has been either snarky commentary on his waffling about retirement or pejorative speculation about his ambition to hold the spotlight. I think this says more about the state of journalism than about Brett Favre.

My first reaction when I heard the news of his arrival at Vikings camp was joy. I like to witness history and now we all have another season to watch him push certain records (consecutive starts by a QB and all-time TD's to name two) further out of reach. I think his story is an interesting one and his presence in the NFC North adds drama to the league. I can't wait to watch the season unfold.

In terms of impact, I don't know how much athletic ability he has left but it must be something close to the ability he used last year to help the Jets get off to a hot start prior to his arm injury. I would doubt that his experience has become obsolete and his decision making ability should be as sharp as ever, especially in the familiar offense the Vikings run. For all those reasons, he should be a very capable QB on a very solid team.

More importantly, his example of professionalism, both on and off the field, will likely help the team assume a winning work ethic and mentality that will push them to reach new levels of success. I wish him well and I look forward to watching.

Press: Too Much and Too Little

I see a theme emerging here.

I mentioned the FCC requirement that a percentage of all media coverage refer to Brett Favre. This sparked a post from Auggie about the overwhelming publicity of Brady-related non-stories. That in turn prompted frequent (but erratic) commenter "JD" to snipe sarcastically about Tiger.

Here are two lists. A partial list of things that seem to get too much press and a partial list of things I think should get more "ink". Feel free to help me round them out.

Too Much:
1. Favre
2. Brady
3. Tiger
4. Steroids
5. Obama's Dog
6. Celebrity political opinions
7. Polls
8. The Dow
9. Housing prices

Too Little:
1. Korea testing missiles (this one is getting some run)
2. NFL players life expectancy of 57
3. US and European obesity rates among children
4. Increased smoking among teens
5. 42 separate wars on the planet right now
6. Disparity of education quality between inner-city and suburbs
7. What Would Den Say Blog

Any thoughts?

Requisite Favre Post

As a blogger, I am akin to a member of the media. As such, there are certain immutable, FCC regulations by which I must abide. One of those is that no less than 5% of my writing must be about Brett Favre.

So I guess Fran Tarkenton has issues with Brett. I could speculate on the source of those issues but I generally try to avoid playing amateur psychologist. Ah, what the heck, I think he's jealous that Brett now holds records he once held and is afraid of being displaced in the conversation about great Vikings QB's. If Favre goes to Minnesota for a season or two and (gasp) wins a SuperBowl with their highly talented roster of current players, many might equate him with the Vikings greatest success and drop Fran from his current perch atop that particular discussion.

Tarkenton went on the radio yesterday and absolutely lambasted Farve. Seems like he is also harboring some thinly veiled anger toward the Vikings and all NFL owners as well. You can read his rant here and click through to hear the audio clip if you wish.

Brett Favre and the Media

I don't know why there is such a range of emotion about Brett Favre among so many members of the media. It is really baffling; these are my thoughts.

I was never a big fan but I can't deny that he played for a long time, put together a remarkable string of consecutive starts by playing through the pain of minor injuries, had lots of success in terms of Super Bowls and league MVP's, stayed out of legal trouble, was a good teammate, didn't make greedy and unreasonable salary demands or pull free agent stunts to gain wealth, and was open and accessible to the fans and media.

Sounds to me like the formula for a "good guy" in this age of WR's who carry unregistered guns to NY night clubs, QB's who torture dogs across the south, and corner backs who act so bad, new laws get invented in Tennessee just to contain them. As I said, I was never a big Favre fan but couldn't really dislike anything about him either. And surely, his career has been impressive.

I guess it must have been a bit stressful for Packer fans and front office executives to live through his indecisiveness each year regarding retirement but is that really a big deal? Isn't it pretty easy to understand that an aging player, who feels drained at the end of the season and doesn't want to commit to his team for another year unless he is sure he has the will to give it his all, feels a bit torn before making a decision one way or the other?

As you know from earlier posts (I am sure you have all committed my writings to memory), I believe pro athletes should play for as long as they (1) want to, and (2) can make the roster. There is no honor in "going out on top" if you still want to play. In fact, it is cowardly to walk away just so no one will see that age has diminished your skills. If you are good enough to claim a roster spot and come off the bench, and your will is there, you should play.

So back to the media. I cannot believe the vitriol I am hearing over Brett's alleged meeting with the Vikings and his possible participation in the league for another year. Successful QB's are in high demand and there are not enough to go around. He still has skills, the Jets released him, and he may want to play another year. What's the big deal?

He is not "selfish", he is not "an attention whore", and he is not "sticking it to the Packers". He is just pursuing a career in the NFL.

Attention angry media hacks: save the vituperative diatribes for more deserving topics. If you are tired of covering Favre, don't cover him. Roll the dice and see if you can capture the nation's attention with a story you actually research and report. You know, journalism?

It's not his fault the public is curious about him and I doubt anyone is holding a gun to your head to work at your job; feel free to become plumbers.